The Triangular Calculations Of The Three Leading Candidates With Bola Tinubu Still In Pole Position To Become Nigeria’s Next President

 

The Race to succeed President Muhammadu Buhari come February 25th is getting more intensed and Political Observers are particularly looking forward to the Elections because of the unusual three dimensional twist to the Polls this time around.

For the first time in Nigeria Democratic History, the battle is not a straight forward fight between the Country’s two popular parties, the APC and PDP but there is a genuine third force in the Labour Party, which says it is ready to ruffle the existing status quo.

But the big question is how far can the Labour Party go in this exciting race when Nigerians go to the Polls.

For the neutrals , having a Third force in the Labour Party is very good for the Country’s Politics.

I definitely will not doubt that but this third Force is an offshoot of one of the popular Parties, the PDP, so in the actual sense nothing really is new.

So as it stands, with few weeks to the Election on the 25th of February, there are undoubtedly three leading candidates, Bola Tinubu of the ruling Party APC, Atiku Abubakar of the PDP and Peter Obi of the Labour Party, no disrespect to other Presidential candidates especially Ibrahim Kwankwanso of the NNPP.

The three leading candidates have been going through the length and breadth of the country to campaign, selling their manifestoes and even taking swipe at each other to convince Nigerians to vote them into Power.

But what is actually the Calculations and Permutations of these three candidates on how they will get the majority of the vote needed to emerge Winner.

Labour Party and Obi is banking on APC and PDP to cancel each other with the Northern vote while it will rely on a bulk vote from the South especially the South South and South East couple with the social media support of new and young voters to win.

This is exactly the thinking of the Labour Party but observation and experience have shown that it might not necessarily play out this way.

The sort of Campaign and support a candidate like Bola Tinubu has in the entire South might have automatically punctured the thinking of the Labour Party in this regard.

As fervent and zealous the Obidient movement is , the Political fact remains that the Labour Party is a neophyte in the scheme of things.

Yes , they are gaining grounds amongst some young and new voters but their success so far is still a far cry to what they will need to emerge as a ruling Party in the upcoming Elections.

In the core North like Kano, Katsina, Bornu, Kebbi, and Kaduna , where voting population is huge, the Labour Party has no competing presence whatsoever.

So the earlier the so called Obidients understand that winning the upcoming Elections does not start and end with abuse and insult on social media , the better they will understand their factual strength.

For the PDP and ATIKU, they are banking on weeping a Northern sentiment of “He’s our Own” to get a bulk vote from the Highly populated voting citizens from the North to win, despite Nigeria coming out of a Northern Government of 8years with President Buhari.

This is the tribalistic weapon the PDP Candidate wants to use to get into Aso Rock. However, going by the gallant behavior of most Northern Governors who are backing Asiwaju, Atiku might need to play another card to win the election.

The majority of the Northern Governors who are in the APC have been very loud and clear in their pursuit to ensure Power rotate to the South after eight years of a Northerner as President of Nigeria.

They said this is not negotiable in the Spirit of fairness, oneness, equity and justice which has always been the hallmark of an average

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